The supply shock created by a surge in North American oil production will be as transformative to the market over the next five years as was the rise of Chinese demand over the last 15, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its annual Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) released today. The shift will not only cause oil companies to overhaul their global investment strategies, but also reshape the way oil is transported, stored and refined.
The International Energy Agency has released a report stating that the supply shock caused by the surge in oil production in North America will be transformative over next five years the way the rise in demand from China was over last 15 years. Read the report here. Brief excerpt below. RLI believes the market has yet to fully understand the impacts of these changes.
In case you have missed the headlines, here are a few recaps from the Ira Sohn conference held in New York last week:
This past week 60 minutes aired a report on hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones and his Robin Hood charity foundation. During the segment, they references a documentary of PTJ originally created for PBS in the 1980's, which is apparently a cult classic among traders. The video is very hard to find with PTJ reportedly asking PBS to no longer air the video. Every so often a copy pops up on the internet.
Here one is! We found this on YouTube.com and it is worth a watch if for nothing else the awesome 80's gear. It is also hilarious to watch PTJ bark at traders over the phone. Though the real insight here is the glimpse of how unsophisticated even sophisticated market participants were in the 1980's. PTJ is a billionaire today and has $17B under management. Taking it a step further, imagine how sophisticated investing may be 30 years from now! Will investors look back on today and think our methods are primitive and even superstitious? It really is something to think about, particularly if you are young and work in the industry. Video, while it lasts on YouTube, can be viewed here. Embedded below.
Leon Black, Chairman and CEO of Apollo Global Management, has been widely quoted this past week as saying "It's almost biblical. There is a time to reap and a time to sow... We are selling anything that is not nailed down." This quote came from a panel discussion at The Milken Institute's Global Conference that included several leading private equity executives. The discussion was hosted by CNBC's Maria Bartiromo. Panelists included:
You can watch the full video here, or we have embedded it below. It's a great discussion, and David Bonderman was in a particularly humorous(?) mood which lightens the mood.
Last week the Milken Institute hosted its annual Global Conference. Fortunately for those who could not attend, they have posted some really great panels and interviews on YouTube.com. This week we will post links to some of the best sessions from last week. To start we will begin with A Conversation with Howard Marks and Michael Milken. You need to skip through the intro to get to the actual interview (starts around minute 7:00).
We are still catching up here at RLI after our extended downtime. A few weeks back Bill Gross published his April Investment Outlook titled A Man in a Mirror. It's a reflective piece in which he challenges he and other well known investors are actually good investors, and why it's challenging to know. Read full report here. Excerpt below:
Am I a great investor? No, not yet. To paraphrase Ernest Hemingway’s “Jake” in The Sun Also Rises, “wouldn’t it be pretty to think so?” But the thinking so and the reality are often miles apart. When looking in the mirror, the average human sees a six-plus or a seven reflection on a scale of one to ten. The big nose or weak chin is masked by brighter eyes or near picture perfect teeth. And when the public is consulted, the vocal compliments as opposed to the near silent/ whispered critiques are taken as a supermajority vote for good looks. So it is with investing, or any career that is exposed to the public eye. The brickbats come via the blogs and ambitious competitors, but the roses dominate one’s mental and even physical scrapbook. In addition to hope, it is how we survive day-to-day. We look at the man or woman in the mirror and see an image that is as distorted from reality as the one in a circus fun zone.
Kyle Bass continues to preach his message regarding the insolvency of Japan. This is from a few weeks back. Given that we have been down, we are reposting.